Dubuque, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

760
FXUS63 KDVN 292020
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
220 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will develop Thursday into Friday across the area with a
  20-30 percent chance of a rain/snow mix Friday morning. There
  is a less than 20 percent chance of a narrow band of all snow
  occurring, but if it does occur, significant impacts are
  possible.

- Mild temperatures will continue through the weekend with a
  cool down to near normal temperatures early next week.

- The weather pattern is looking to turn more active the second
  half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Above normal temperatures  and dry conditions will continue into
tonight as winds turn southerly ahead of the approaching storm
system.

Dry conditions will continue through the morning commute on
Thursday. Top down saturation of the atmosphere will occur south of
I-80 the second half of the morning with rain developing. Radar will
likely show plenty of virga Thursday morning before any rain reaches
the ground.

Thursday afternoon top down saturation will be completed north of
Interstate 80 with rain developing across the remainder of the area.
Before the rain starts on Thursday, southerly winds will again allow
above normal temperatures to occur in spite of the cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Thursday night/Friday
Assessment...high confidence on rain. Low confidence on snow.

A general rain will encompass the area Thursday evening that will
continue past midnight. Lapse rates aloft may allow for some very
isolated rumbles of thunder to occur south of I-80.

Given the thermal profiles of the atmosphere, rain is the most
likely precipitation type to occur through sunrise Friday. LREF
probabilities show less than a 10 percent chance of any snow that
would accumulate. The key will be where does the occluded low track
across the area. Forcing along and to the left of the low track
would be maximized along with creating some localized cooling.

On Friday, mainly rain will be seen across the area with possibly a
rain/snow mix on the back edge of the precipitation shield before
ending. Again, unless dynamic cooling occurs, the ptype would be
rain.

If localized dynamic cooling does occur, LREF probabilities are 15
to 30 percent for any snow accumulation that is a dusting during the
morning with less than a 10 percent probability in the afternoon.

Precipitation will end from west to east during the afternoon with
most if not all of the area dry by sunset.

Friday night through Saturday night
Assessment...high confidence on above normal temperatures. Low
confidence on any precipitation

High pressure will build into the Midwest Friday through Saturday
night across the area. Dry and mild conditions will be seen Friday
night through Saturday. Saturday night a weak upper level
disturbance in the flow aloft will move through the area. Moisture
is extremely limited with this system so there is only a 20 percent
chance of rain, a rain/snow mix or snow occurring in the Highway 20
corridor. The remainder of the area looks to remain dry.

Sunday through Tuesday
Assessment...high confidence on a cool down after Sunday. Low
confidence on any precipitation occurring

The model consensus has dry conditions through the period. Mild
conditions will continue Sunday before a cold front sweeps through
the area Sunday night bringing cooler temperatures.

Moisture associated with the front is very sparse and the overall
forcing is minimal. The probability of dry conditions being seen
Sunday night is very high (>90 percent). However, I cannot fully
rule out the very low possibility (5-10 percent) of some errant
flurries occurring during or right after the frontal passage.

Tuesday night/Wednesday
Assessment...High confidence on a storm system. Low confidence
regarding potential impacts

As the flow pattern aloft changes to a more westerly or southwest
flow, the global models are generating a storm system that is
forecast to move through the Midwest. However, there are
disagreements between the models on the track of the system which
translates into potential impacts.

The scenario that appears to be favored is energy ejecting from the
Rockies and developing a weak low along the remnants of the frontal
boundary that moved through the area Sunday night. Additionally, the
southern sub tropical jet will be dominate for the system.

Run to run continuity from the models is poor. This can be traceable
to two things; 1) the pattern change occurring that develops a low
amplitude trof in the western CONUS and 2) how quickly a deep upper
low digs southward along the west coast.

Given the uncertainties in timing and track of the system, the model
consensus has a 20 percent chance of precipitation late Tuesday
night and a 25 to 40 percent chance of precipitation on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Winds will turn southerly across eastern Iowa and northern
Illinois after 00z/30 ahead of an approaching storm system. Dry
conditions are expected through 12z/30 with rain developing
across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois after 16z/30. VFR
conditions are expected through roughly 18z/30 but will quickly
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after 18z/30.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08